From ocean heat flux to a conditional melt bound

Converting an ocean heat flux into centimetres of ice can check physical scale without predicting sea-ice loss. This methods note uses published ocean-ice heat-budget research and the TEOS-10 framework to derive a conditional latent-melt equivalent. A hypothetical flux of ten watts per square metre over thirty days supports approximately 8.6 centimetres under explicitly simplified property and energy-allocation assumptions. Further cases show how conductive export, duration, area denominator, and reduced winter growth change the interpretation. The note distinguishes a bound on one specified energy contribution from an unconditional bound on total melt. It does not estimate a present Arctic flux or attribute observed retreat. Its reporting framework keeps system boundaries, counterfactuals, thermodynamic approximations, and unmeasured transport beside the calculation.