Counting the seals you cannot see

Aerial seal counts are interpreted by separating availability to a survey from recognition of an animal that is available. The essay discusses published biologger research on bearded, ribbon, and spotted seals, showing why haul-out timing, weather, season, and demographic group affect the visible fraction. A deliberately invented calculation demonstrates that the same count can imply different totals under different availability assumptions, without proposing correction factors for real surveys. Ringed seals require additional treatment because snow lairs can conceal animals that are already out of the water. The discussion also considers tagging selection, device lifetime, temporal dependence, coverage, and identification error. Better population inference needs representative evidence and propagated uncertainty, while personal observations should retain effort and conditions without approaching wildlife to complete a count.